- DVD is much cheaper (roughly half the price in the UK)
- A year after Blu Ray beat HD-DVD there’s still a painfully limited choice of content
- DVD to HD step in user experience is not as significant as the step from VHS to DVD
- Hardware is getting cheaper, but we’re now in a recession so uptake will be hindered
So my money is on Blu Ray being consigned ‘video format valhalla’ and seated down the unfashionable end of the feast hall, nestled between Betamax and Laserdisc.
As for what replaces it… I’m guessing a segmented market comprising of
- Incompatible DRM-laden download services provided by the big distributors
- A few rental by-mail services for people who can’t be bothered relying on fluctuating bandwidth and technical glitches (these guys might have some Blu Ray uptake if it’s not priced too high)
- A black market of illegal downloads for people who won’t accept distributors restrictions or don’t want to pay
I’m hoping I’m wrong and we get a more elegant solution.